欧元区银行面临更大的资产减记压力
smart_1st 2009年06月16日10:50 来源：华尔街日报 点击次
欧元区银行面临更大的资产减记压力
欧洲央行在一期不容乐观的《金融稳定评论》(Financial Stability Review)中警告说，尽管经济、股市和货币市场出现了一些企稳的迹象，欧元区金融稳定性的风险依然很高。欧洲央行负责为欧元区16国设定利率。《金融稳定评论》每年发行两期。
欧洲央行的担忧包括：美国房价跌幅超过预期、欧元区银行资本缓冲进一步缩水、中欧和东欧等一些欧元区银行进行了大笔投资的地区经济动荡有可能加剧。其他担忧的问题还包括：不断上升的公司违约率、一些欧元区国家房价不断下跌、欧元区的衰退可能会比预期的更加严重。
欧洲央行工作人员上周预测，欧元区今年产值将萎缩约4.6%，2010年萎缩约0.3%。欧洲央行副行长帕帕德莫斯(Lucas Papademos)周一向记者表示，大部分欧元区大银行看起来有着充足的资本金，可以抵御可能的严重下行情况。他指出，到目前为止，银行对政府银行救助计划的参与令人满意。不过他说，主要由国内不断恶化的贷款造成的潜在损失意味着银行应该进一步动用政府资金。
帕帕德莫斯说，展望未来，应该鼓励银行利用政府的计划，并增强自身的资本缓冲。他说，一旦欧洲央行取消为支撑金融业而部署的计划，这可能会启动银行放贷，提振银行资产负债表。
不过，欧洲央行估计，危机对欧元区银行的冲击不会像IMF预测的那样严重。自IMF 4月份发布预测以来，很多欧洲决策人士一直在质疑这个结果；他们说，数据没有将欧洲会计和杠杆标准与美国的差异考虑进去。
帕帕德莫斯说，欧洲央行的数据考虑到了这些差异，还有贷款违约率上的差异。IMF 4月份说，欧元区银行仍有7,500亿美元未决减记，这个数据不包括1-5月份进行的减记。欧洲央行说，将这些差异考虑进来，根据IMF的方法得到的预测结果是在2010年年底前减记5,390亿美元，仍远远高于欧洲央行自己估计的2,830亿美元。
帕帕德莫斯说，对潜在减记的所有估计都可能有相当大的误差。在欧洲央行内部，官员们担心IMF的数据过度考虑了投资者的信心。IMF对估计数据的差异没有立即作出置评。IMF过去曾说，它对贷款损失的估计很重要，不仅是具体数据本身，还有数据揭示出来的经济走势，比如，金融形势是在恶化还是在好转。
European Banks Face Further Strains, ECB Says
The European Central Bank believes euro-zone banks will need to write down another $283 billion by the end of next year and sees the bloc's total crisis-related losses at $649 billion, far below the $904 billion the International Monetary Fund forecast in April.
In a grim edition of its twice-yearly Financial Stability Review, the ECB -- which sets interest rates for the 16 countries that share the euro currency -- warned that risks to euro-zone financial stability 'remain high' despite some signs of stabilization in the economy, as well as in equity and money markets.
Among the central bank's worries: sharper-than-anticipated falls in U.S. housing prices, further winnowing of euro-zone banks' capital buffers and the possibility that economic upheavals across central and eastern Europe -- where some euro-zone banks have big investments -- could intensify. Other sources of concern include rising corporate default rates, falling property prices in some euro-zone countries and the potential for the bloc's recession to be even worse than expected.
European central-bank staff last week forecast euro-zone output will shrink by around 4.6% this year and around 0.3% in 2010. Most big euro-area banks 'appear to be sufficiently well-capitalized to withstand severe but plausible downside scenarios,' ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos told reporters Monday, noting banks' participation in government schemes to prop up struggling banks has so far been 'satisfactory.' But he said pending losses, largely from souring domestic loans, mean banks should tap government coffers further.
'Looking forward, banks should be encouraged to take advantage of the governments' commitments...and strengthen their capital buffers,' Papademos said. That, he said, could kick-start bank lending and bolster bank balance sheets once the ECB withdraws the programs it has deployed to keep the financial sector afloat.
Still, the ECB estimates the crisis won't be as hard on euro-zone banks as the IMF has predicted. Since the IMF published its forecasts in April, many European policy makers have questioned the results, saying the figures don't take into account how European accounting and leverage standards differ from those in the U.S.
Papademos said the ECB's figures account for those differences, as well as for how euro-zone loan default rates differ from those in the U.S. In April, the IMF said euro-zone banks still had $750 billion in pending writedowns, a figure that did not include writedowns taken from January through May of this year. Accounting for that difference, the ECB says the IMF's methodology would result in a forecast of $539 billion in writedowns to come before the end of 2010 -- still well above the ECB's own estimate of $283 billion.
Papademos said all estimates of potential writedowns are 'subject to a considerable margin of error.' Inside the ECB, officials have worried the IMF figures have weighed unduly on investor confidence. The IMF had no immediate comment on the differences in estimates. In the past, the IMF has said its estimates of loan losses are important as much in terms of the economic trends the numbers reveal -- for instance, whether the financial situation was worsening or improving -- as the specific numbers.
欧
洲央行(ECB)认为，欧元区各银行明年年底前将需要再减记2,830亿美元，并预计欧元区与危机相关的总损失达6,490亿美元，远远低于国际货币基金组织(IMF) 4月份预测的9,040亿美元。欧洲央行在一期不容乐观的《金融稳定评论》(Financial Stability Review)中警告说，尽管经济、股市和货币市场出现了一些企稳的迹象，欧元区金融稳定性的风险依然很高。欧洲央行负责为欧元区16国设定利率。《金融稳定评论》每年发行两期。
AFP/Getty Images
欧洲央行说大型银行仍将面临盈利压力
欧洲央行工作人员上周预测，欧元区今年产值将萎缩约4.6%，2010年萎缩约0.3%。欧洲央行副行长帕帕德莫斯(Lucas Papademos)周一向记者表示，大部分欧元区大银行看起来有着充足的资本金，可以抵御可能的严重下行情况。他指出，到目前为止，银行对政府银行救助计划的参与令人满意。不过他说，主要由国内不断恶化的贷款造成的潜在损失意味着银行应该进一步动用政府资金。
帕帕德莫斯说，展望未来，应该鼓励银行利用政府的计划，并增强自身的资本缓冲。他说，一旦欧洲央行取消为支撑金融业而部署的计划，这可能会启动银行放贷，提振银行资产负债表。
不过，欧洲央行估计，危机对欧元区银行的冲击不会像IMF预测的那样严重。自IMF 4月份发布预测以来，很多欧洲决策人士一直在质疑这个结果；他们说，数据没有将欧洲会计和杠杆标准与美国的差异考虑进去。
帕帕德莫斯说，欧洲央行的数据考虑到了这些差异，还有贷款违约率上的差异。IMF 4月份说，欧元区银行仍有7,500亿美元未决减记，这个数据不包括1-5月份进行的减记。欧洲央行说，将这些差异考虑进来，根据IMF的方法得到的预测结果是在2010年年底前减记5,390亿美元，仍远远高于欧洲央行自己估计的2,830亿美元。
帕帕德莫斯说，对潜在减记的所有估计都可能有相当大的误差。在欧洲央行内部，官员们担心IMF的数据过度考虑了投资者的信心。IMF对估计数据的差异没有立即作出置评。IMF过去曾说，它对贷款损失的估计很重要，不仅是具体数据本身，还有数据揭示出来的经济走势，比如，金融形势是在恶化还是在好转。
European Banks Face Further Strains, ECB Says
The European Central Bank believes euro-zone banks will need to write down another $283 billion by the end of next year and sees the bloc's total crisis-related losses at $649 billion, far below the $904 billion the International Monetary Fund forecast in April.
In a grim edition of its twice-yearly Financial Stability Review, the ECB -- which sets interest rates for the 16 countries that share the euro currency -- warned that risks to euro-zone financial stability 'remain high' despite some signs of stabilization in the economy, as well as in equity and money markets.
Among the central bank's worries: sharper-than-anticipated falls in U.S. housing prices, further winnowing of euro-zone banks' capital buffers and the possibility that economic upheavals across central and eastern Europe -- where some euro-zone banks have big investments -- could intensify. Other sources of concern include rising corporate default rates, falling property prices in some euro-zone countries and the potential for the bloc's recession to be even worse than expected.
European central-bank staff last week forecast euro-zone output will shrink by around 4.6% this year and around 0.3% in 2010. Most big euro-area banks 'appear to be sufficiently well-capitalized to withstand severe but plausible downside scenarios,' ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos told reporters Monday, noting banks' participation in government schemes to prop up struggling banks has so far been 'satisfactory.' But he said pending losses, largely from souring domestic loans, mean banks should tap government coffers further.
'Looking forward, banks should be encouraged to take advantage of the governments' commitments...and strengthen their capital buffers,' Papademos said. That, he said, could kick-start bank lending and bolster bank balance sheets once the ECB withdraws the programs it has deployed to keep the financial sector afloat.
Still, the ECB estimates the crisis won't be as hard on euro-zone banks as the IMF has predicted. Since the IMF published its forecasts in April, many European policy makers have questioned the results, saying the figures don't take into account how European accounting and leverage standards differ from those in the U.S.
Papademos said the ECB's figures account for those differences, as well as for how euro-zone loan default rates differ from those in the U.S. In April, the IMF said euro-zone banks still had $750 billion in pending writedowns, a figure that did not include writedowns taken from January through May of this year. Accounting for that difference, the ECB says the IMF's methodology would result in a forecast of $539 billion in writedowns to come before the end of 2010 -- still well above the ECB's own estimate of $283 billion.
Papademos said all estimates of potential writedowns are 'subject to a considerable margin of error.' Inside the ECB, officials have worried the IMF figures have weighed unduly on investor confidence. The IMF had no immediate comment on the differences in estimates. In the past, the IMF has said its estimates of loan losses are important as much in terms of the economic trends the numbers reveal -- for instance, whether the financial situation was worsening or improving -- as the specific numbers.
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