短线观点：似曾相识的市场走势

　　Almost everywhere yesterday there was a landmark. The S&P 500 traded above 1,000 for the first time since election day, November 4. The FTSE emerging markets equity index reached above its close on September 12, the eve of the Lehman debacle. And the US dollar dropped to its lowest against a basket of currencies since Congress shocked world markets by voting down the first version of the bail-out for toxic assets on September 30.
　　昨天，几乎各处都有某种关口被突破。标普500指数自去年11月4日美国大选之日以来首次站上1000点。富时新兴市场股票指数超过了去年9月12日雷曼(Lehman)破产前夕的收盘价。而美元兑一篮子货币的汇率跌至去年9月30日以来的最低点，当天美国国会投票否决了第一版的有毒资产救助计划，令世界震惊。

　　Such optimism found support in the latest economic data. The ISM supply managers' survey in the US found manufacturers' sentiment almost back to its level of August last year, and far higher than at any other time since Lehman. The same was true of a similar survey for the eurozone. The guts of the ISM survey also helped the optimists. New orders exceeded inventories to the greatest extent since 1975, strong argument for the belief that the US will now see a “restocking boom” as production is stepped up to replenish inventories. But there is reason for disquiet in that the rally in risky assets is painfully reminiscent of the behaviour that preceded last year's crash. Then, as now, commodities, emerging market equities and high-yielding currencies validated and supported each other higher.
　　这种乐观情绪受到了最新经济数据的支撑。美国供应管理学会(ISM)采购经理人调查显示，制造商的信心几乎回到了去年8月的水平，远高于雷曼破产后的任何时期。欧元区的类似调查得到了同样的结果。ISM调查中的分类指数也提振了乐观情绪。新订单与存货之比达到1975年以来的最高水平，有力地支持了这样的信心：随着企业增加产量补充库存，美国将出现重新增加库存的热潮。但我们仍有理由感到不安，因为风险资产的反弹让我们痛苦地回忆起去年危机爆发前的市场行为。当时，就像现在一样，大宗商品、新兴市场股票和高收益率货币彼此支撑巩固，价格越抬越高。

　　Then, as now, the dollar was the chief victim. Even though the latest news is good for the US economy, the dollar sold off heavily as investors left it for opportunities to take part in the global “recovery” trade. The inverse relationship between the dollar and risky assets is as strong as ever. It has now given up more than half of its gains since it hit bottom last July, just as the bubble of commodities and emerging markets was about to burst. Then, as now, the advance of relatively risky assets has been uniform, and undiscriminating.
　　和现在一样，当时美元是主要的受害者。虽然最新的美国经济数据相当乐观，但随着投资者抛弃美元，选择其它资产以搭乘全球“复苏”的顺风车，美元遭到严重抛售。美元和风险资产之间的反比关系一如既往的明显。美元在去年7月大宗商品和新兴市场泡沫即将破裂之际触底，但如今已失去了此后超过一半的升幅。当时，和现在一样，风险较高的资产一致上涨，不体现任何差异。