中石油集团看中加拿大油砂
News that engineers from PetroChina will soon be trudging over Western Canada's oil sands, home to the biggest oil deposits outside Saudi Arabia, is a welcome boost for the region. Not only does the Chinese company's $1.7bn investment value Athabasca Oil Sands' reserves more highly than other recent deals, it represents a rare influx of capital, full stop. Oil majors have shelved projects in the area since the slide in the oil price.
有关中石油(PetroChina)的工程技术人员不久将参与开发加拿大西部油砂资源的消息,对该地区是一个可喜的提振。这里的石油储量仅次于沙特阿拉伯。中石油17亿美元的投资,对阿萨巴斯卡油砂公司(Athabasca Oil Sands)储量的估值高于近期其它交易,还代表着少见的资本流入,就这么简单。自油价下滑以来,西方大型石油公司已经搁置了该地区的项目。
The deal is also a neat summary of PetroChina's growth problem. In spite of a lot of bluster earlier this year about “seizing historic opportunities,” few of its deals move the needle. Since December it has spent about $3.4bn on bits and pieces – gas fields in Kazakhstan and a Singapore refinery – while taking various assets from its parent. Some deals the group has coveted, such as Verenex's Libyan oil properties or Repsol's YPF, have stalled, apparently for political reasons. Paying over the odds for a potential 35,000 barrels a day in Alberta – 1 per cent of the group's current output – is only small consolation.
这宗交易还突显了中石油的增长难题。尽管该公司今年早些时候大肆吹嘘要“抓住历史机遇”,但它很少达成有份量的交易。自去年12月以来,该公司已投资34亿美元买下一些零星的资产:哈萨克斯坦的天然气田、新加坡的一家炼油厂,同时从母公司接手各种资产。该集团看中的一些交易,如Verenex的利比亚石油资产,或西班牙雷普索尔(Repsol)的YPF,由于明显的政治原因已经陷入僵局。高价买下加拿大阿尔伯塔省有望达到3.5万桶日产量的资产(占该集团当前产出的1%),只是小小的安慰。
Yet what else can it do? Domestic oil production in the first half fell 5 per cent, an uncomfortable reminder that much of PetroChina's portfolio outside its core Daqing field, responsible for about a quarter of total output, is too costly to lift at these prices. Writedowns on these old and inefficient assets – depreciation charges were up by a quarter in the first half, year on year – are taking their toll. Return on common equity was more than 26 per cent five years ago, in line with the international oil companies. Last year, as the IOCs held steady at 25 per cent, PetroChina fell to 15. With projected year-end gearing at less than 20 per cent, funding transformational deals is not a problem. But actually doing them is.
但除此之外它还能做什么?今年上半年国内石油产量下降5%,令人不安地提醒着人们:中石油在其核心的大庆油田以外的许多资产(占其总产量约四分之一),在当前油价下开采成本过高。减记这些陈旧而效率低下的资产(今年上半年折旧费同比增加四分之一),正对业绩产生影响。五年前,中石油的普通股回报率在曾超过26%,与国际石油公司相当。去年,在国际石油公司守住25%之际,中石油的回报率降至15%。鉴于预测的年终杠杆率不到20%,为有望扭转局势的交易出资不是问题。达成这些交易才是一个问题。
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