美国汽车销量回升尚须时日

　　After a 'cash for clunkers' buying frenzy and a postclunkers hangover, auto sales are stabilizing. But as with the rest of the economy, their new level represents a downshift from faster times.
　　在经过“旧车换现金”带来的购车热潮以及计划结束后的影响后，美国汽车销量正在逐步稳定。但和经济其他方面一样，新销量水平较此前经济增长迅速时期有所下滑。

　　Auto makers report October car and light-truck sales throughout the day Tuesday. Economists estimate vehicles rolled off dealer lots at an annualized rate of 10 million units. That would be the best pace of the year outside of July and August, when sales were buttressed by the clunkers program.
　　各大汽车厂商周二将先后公布10月份汽车和轻型卡车销量数据。经济学家预计，10月份美国汽车销量折合成年率为1,000万辆。这将是今年除了7月和8月以外最好的销量数据，当时汽车销量受到了“旧车换现金”计划的提振。

　　Clunker-driven sales peaked in August at a 14.1-million-unit pace, but payback was rough: Sales tumbled in September to a rate of 9.2 million units. Since then, auto makers have aggressively offered and upgraded incentives on an array of models, and many economists think that helped sales rebound last month.
　　“旧车换现金”计划带来的销量在8月份达到了高峰，当月销量折合成年率为1410万辆，但接下来的日子却更难了：美国9月份汽车销量折合成年率为920万辆。此后，美国汽车制造商对诸多车型积极推出了购车和升级优惠，很多经济学家认为这能够推动上个月汽车销量回升。

　　Ford Motor's report on Monday of its first quarterly operating profit since first-quarter 2008 lifted its shares, and those of other auto makers seen as most likely to thrive, including Toyota Motor and Honda Motor. A positive report on October sales might further lift investors' hopes for the industry.
　　福特汽车(Ford Motor)周一公布，公司自2008年第一季度以来首次实现季度营业利润，这给该股股价带来了提振，其他业绩被认为最有可能回升的汽车厂商，如丰田汽车(Toyota Motor)和本田汽车(Honda Motor)等，股价也一同上升。若10月份销量报告表现强劲，可能会进一步提振投资者对汽车行业的希望。

　　Beyond the sector, car sales will offer an early gauge of fourth-quarter consumer demand. Strong reports post-clunker would help reassure Wall Street a sustainable recovery, sans assistance, is taking root.
　　此外，汽车销量或将提供第四季度消费者需求的初步评估。若汽车销量在“旧车换现金”计划之后仍然保持强劲，则有助于令华尔街相信，美国经济脱离救助后仍持续复苏势头。

　　Still, while 10 million car sales is an improvement, odds are the bounce won't go much further. In the Conference Board's recent consumer survey, the percentage of consumers planning to buy autos fell to 4.4%, the lowest since March. And most buyers will shop on used-car lots -- the percentage of consumers planning to buy new cars was just 1.4%, the lowest of the recession.
　　不过，尽管汽车销量达到1,000万辆是一个利好消息，但销量回升势头也有可能难以延续。世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)最近的消费者调查显示，计划购车的消费者比例下滑至4.4%，为3月份以来最低水平。而且大多数购车者打算购买二手车，计划买新车的消费者比例仅为1.4%，降至经济衰退以来的最低水平。

　　With credit tight and unemployment high, the best that can be expected is consumers keep taking incentives to replace worn-out vehicles. But such replacement demand is likely good for little more than 10 million sales a year, estimates Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. Auto makers sold, on average, 17 million cars annually from 1999 to 2007. It might be years, or another credit bubble, before sales get anywhere near such levels.
　　鉴于当前信贷紧缩，失业率居高不下，预计最好的情况是消费者继续利用优惠计划更换原来旧车。但穆迪经济网(Moody's Economy.com)首席经济学家布鲁苏拉斯(Joseph Brusuelas)预计，此类换车需求可能在每年1000万辆左右。1999年至2007年，美国汽车厂商平均每年销量为1700万辆。或许美国汽车销量要再次接近这一水平可能需要数年时间或是经历又一次信贷泡沫才能实现。
　　
　　Mark Gongloff