亚洲制造业继续增长 中国一马当先

　　亚洲由出口引导的经济复苏正在继续，中国制造业增长达到18个月来最快水平，而澳大利亚和印度的增长步伐上个月则有所减缓。
　　Asia's export-led recovery is continuing, with manufacturing in China picking up to its fastest in 18 months, while the pace of expansion eased last month in Australia and India.

　　周一对制造商进行的月度调查继续显示亚太地区的总体活动处于扩张之中。亚太地区已经显示出从去年的全球经济低迷中强劲复苏的迹象。
　　Key monthly surveys of manufacturers Monday continued to register expanding activity across the Asia-Pacific region, which has shown a resilient comeback from the global downturn of the past year.

　　中国制造业加速扩张显示出庞大的政府开支计划继续支撑经济增长，同时这个世界第三大经济体的出口产品的定单也持续增长。相比之下，在澳大利亚，由于政府刺激措施减弱，加上澳元走强影响出口，制造业扩张减缓。
　　China's accelerating expansion in manufacturing shows Beijing's massive government spending programs continue to support growth, while orders for exports from the world's third-biggest economy continue to rise. In Australia, by contrast, expansion slowed as government stimulus ebbed and a strong local currency crimped exports.

　　但虽然澳大利亚央行已经上调利率，新出炉的数据也支撑了对中国未来几个月将收紧政策以控制增长的预期，风险却依然存在──乐观情绪可能会掩盖这一地区复苏的脆弱。
　　But while Australia's central bank has already raised interest rates and the fresh data bolster expectations that China will need to try to curb its growth with tighter policies in the coming months, there is a risk that the rosier sentiment may mask the fragility of the region's upturn.

　　法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)驻香港策略师贝内特(Patrick Bennett)说，情绪的复苏和复苏的活动都很强劲。但凭借从如此低迷的水平的复苏，增长尚未复苏至能形成趋势的程度。
　　'The rebound in sentiment has been strong and the recovery in activity equally strong,' said strategist Patrick Bennett at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. 'But with activity coming from such depressed levels, growth has not yet recovered anywhere near trend.'

　　10月份汇丰中国制造业采购经理人指数(HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index)为55.4，高于9月的55.0。这是该指数连续第七个月高于50.0。该指数高于50.0表明制造业活动处于总体扩张之中。
　　The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for October rose to 55.4 from 55.0 in September, marking the seventh month the index has stayed above 50.0--indicating an expansion in manufacturing.

　　美国银行/美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的经济学家们说，上述强劲结果支撑了该行的观点，认为本季度中国经济较上年同期增幅将上升至11.3%，第三季度增幅为8.9%。不过这也为预期的2010年春季收紧政策创造了条件。
　　Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economists said the strong result supports the bank's view that year-on-year economic growth will rise to 11.3% this quarter from 8.9% in the third quarter. 'However, it also helps set the stage for policy tightening we anticipate in spring 2010.'

　　中国物流与采购联合会(China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing)周日发布的中国官方10月份采购经理人指数从9月的54.3攀升至55.2，连续第八个月高于50。
　　China's official PMI, issued Sunday by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, climbed to 55.2 in October from 54.3 in September, the eighth straight month it has been above 50.

　　澳大利亚制造业连续第三个月增长，不过澳洲工业集团普华永道制造业表现指数(The Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of　Manufacturing Index)10月份较9月的57.0下降0.3。
　　Australia's manufacturing sector recorded its third consecutive month of growth, though the Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index fell 0.3 point in October from September to 57.0 points.

　　增长减缓表明澳大利亚经济前景依然存在不确定性，尤其是在澳元兑美元汇率从3月初至10月底蹿升50%，令该国出口商遭受损失之际。
　　The slower growth illustrates the outlook for the Australian economy remains uncertain, especially as the nation's exporters suffer from the local dollar's nearly 50% jump against the U.S. currency from early March to late October.

　　澳大利亚工业集团首席执行长瑞德特(Heather Ridout)说，虽然过去三个月制造业活动的增长势头、尤其是新增定单的增长可喜，但经济增长并未加速，要收复去年的失地还有很长的路要走。
　　'While the lift in manufacturing activity over the past three months and rising new orders in particular are welcome, growth is not accelerating and there remains a considerable way to go before we recover the ground lost over the past year,' said Ai Group Chief Executive Heather Ridout.

　　印度的情况也是如此，新增定单提振制造业活动增长，但增幅落后于上月。汇丰10月印度采购经理人指数为54.5，略低于9月的55。
　　In India, too, manufacturing activity rose, helped by new orders, but the pace lagged that in the previous month. HSBC's India PMI was 54.5 in October, marginally lower than 55 in September.

　　汇丰资深亚洲经济学家普赖尔-万德斯福德(Robert Prior-Wandesforde)说，或许印度国内的新增定单增长正开始受到定单不足的影响，但至少更为强劲的外国需求帮助缓解了其造成的冲击。他说，采购经理人指数与工业产值折合年率增长8%-10%的强劲增幅一致。
　　'It may be that domestic new-order growth is beginning to suffer from the impact of a drought, but at least stronger foreign demand is helping to cushion the blow,' said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, senior Asian economist at HSBC. The PMI is consistent with industrial production growing at a robust 8%-10% annual pace, he said.

　　10月份汇丰台湾采购经理人指数上升至59.8，9月为57.5，连续第八个月扩张，因各公司增加生产以满足不断增长的定单。
　　The HSBC Taiwan PMI rose to 59.8 in October from 57.5 in September, marking an eighth month of expansion as companies increased production to meet growing orders.

　　汇丰说，台湾经济最近几个月令人意外，部分原因是全球科技需求强劲程度超出预期，而台湾经济对此尤其敏感。虽然台湾复苏最初是受本地需求反弹的推动，但看上去出口行业也终于赶了上来。
　　'Taiwan's economy has surprised in recent months in part because of unexpected strength in global tech demand, to which the island's economy is especially sensitive,' HSBC said. 'While Taiwan's economic recovery was initially driven by the rebound in domestic demand, it appears that the export sector is finally catching up.'

　　不过，亚太地区制造业活动持续扩张，同时该地区决策者十分谨慎，有可能造成政策过早收紧的风险。
　　Still, the continued expansion among Asia-Pacific manufacturers and wariness by their policy makers pose a risk that policy will be tightened prematurely.

　　法国兴业银行的贝内特说，至少从全球角度看，对通胀的担忧放错了地方。亚洲需要全球需求的恢复，而在发达经济体信贷扩张如此疲弱的情况下，很难知道这种情况何时能实现。
　　'Concerns about inflation, at least from a global perspective, are misplaced,' said Bennett at Societe Generale. 'Asia requires a return of global demand and with credit expansion in developed economies being so weak, it is hard to know when that may develop.'