国际能源署或将下调全球石油需求预期

　　一位知情人士透露，国际能源署(International Energy Agency)下周将大幅下调对全球石油需求的长期预测，这也是该组织连续第二年下调对全球石油需求的预期。
　　The International Energy Agency next week will make a 'substantial' downward revision to its long-term forecast for global oil demand, a person familiar with the matter said, marking the second year running the group has slashed its view of the world's thirst for oil.

　　对石油需求增长放缓的预测越来越让国际能源署成为了逆向思维派中的一员，与在衰退后的世界原油需求将大幅增长的流行观点背道而驰。流行观点认为，长期需求将会快速增长，原因是中国和印度等新兴市场财富及消费能力的提高。
　　The forecast of slower growth in oil demand puts the IEA increasingly in a camp of contrarians bucking the popular view that crude demand will grow briskly in a post-recession world. That view holds that long-term demand will grow at a fast clip because of rising emerging-market wealth and consumption in places like China and India.

　　国际能源署为美国等富裕国家提供能源事务的建议。它可能在其备受关注的《世界能源展望》年度报告中预测，发达国家提高能源效率的举措，以及气候变化立法将有助于减缓全球石油消费的增长速度。
　　The IEA, which advises rich nations, such as the U.S., on energy matters, is set to use its closely watched annual World Energy Outlook report to forecast that improved energy-efficiency measures in developed nations, as well as climate-change legislation, will help to slow the rate of global oil consumption.

　　知情人士说，需求管理政策对发达国家的影响要高于以前的预期。发达国家占全球石油消费量的55%左右。作为对行业趋势的方向性预测，国际能源署的这份报告定于11月10日发布。
　　A person familiar with the Paris-based IEA's plans said 'demand-management policies' are having more impact than previously expected in the developed world, which accounts for about 55% of world oil consumption. The IEA outlook, a guidepost for industry trends, is scheduled to be released Nov. 10.

　　衰退带来的工业活动的下降也是做出这一修正的重要因素。过去的长期预测中所使用的基准假设需要下调，以反映过去一年的艰难经济状况。
　　A drop in industrial activity from the recession is also a big factor in the revision. Baseline assumptions used in the previous long-term outlook have to be adjusted down to account for the tough economic conditions of the past year.

　　去年，国际能源署将原油日需求量的长期预测下调了1,000万桶，预计2030年的消费量将达到每天1.06亿桶，比目前水平高出约25%。还不清楚国际能源署今年可能会将这些数字下调多少。
　　Last year, the IEA shaved 10 million barrels a day off its long-term forecast and projected consumption in 2030 would hit 106 million barrels a day, or about 25% above current levels. It isn't clear how that compares with the cuts expected in this year's forecast by the IEA.

　　如果对需求持悲观看法的人是正确的，原油价格未来的涨势将会减缓。各种分析预测仍认为，本世纪初全球石油需求2%左右的年均增长速度──这也是油价去年创出每桶147美元历史高点的最大原因──可能是反常的，0.5%至1%上下的年增长速度可能更为正常。
　　If demand pessimists are correct, future increases in the price of crude could be damped. Various analyst estimates maintain that the roughly 2% a year average growth rate in world oil consumption seen earlier this decade--the biggest reason for crude prices hitting a record $147 a barrel last year--may turn out to be an anomaly and that annual growth in the neighborhood of 0.5% to 1% is more the norm.

　　不过，中国和其它市场需要更多的包括核能和原油在内的能源推动经济的增长。中国是仅次于美国的全球第二大石油消费国。更高效的产品和工艺带来的成本节约只可能带来商业活动的增加，进而需要更多的石油。还有一点就是，正如上世纪90年代的情况一样，在新的石油供应上市并压低油价后，全球机会看到以前能源效率提高的时期几乎就不复存在了。
　　Still, a lot more energy, including nuclear power and raw crude, will be needed to power rising economic activity in China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer after the U.S., and other markets. Cost savings gleaned from more-efficient products and processes may yield just more commerce and, thus, more demand for oil. And there is this: The world has seen previous periods of energy-efficiency gains almost vanish after new oil supply hits the market and pressure prices lower, as happened in the 1990s.

　　一些分析师认为，原油价格可能会在几年内从目前的每桶78美元达到200美元。他们说，快于预期的经济复苏可能会让消费者从经济上容易接受油价的上涨。不过，价格上涨也会增强节约意识。
　　Some analysts believe crude could rise to $200 a barrel within a few years, from today's $78 level. They say a speedier-than-expected economic recovery could make open consumers' wallets to higher crude prices. Still, price increases are bound to reinforce conservation.

　　德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)说，全球日需求量将在2016年达到9,000万桶左右的高峰，而目前约为8,500万桶。
　　Deutsche Bank says global demand will peak by 2016 at around 90 million barrels a day, versus about 85 million currently.