信贷市场回暖 AIG业绩水涨船高

　　Like a rising tide that lifts all boats, this year's credit-market rally will give a boost to American International Group's third-quarter results.
　　正所谓水涨船高，今年信贷市场的复苏将给美国国际集团(AIG)第三财季的业绩带来提振。

　　The giant government-controlled insurer is expected to report on Friday morning that it had a second profitable quarter in a row, helped by improvements in its investment portfolios and write-ups at the financial-products division whose trades nearly sank AIG last year.
　　这家政府控股的保险业巨头定于周五早间发布业绩，预计公司将在投资收益改善和金融产品部门帐面价值提高的带动下连续第二个财季实现盈利。去年AIG金融产品部门的交易差点让公司全军覆没。

　　Since AIG was rescued from the brink of collapse a year ago, it has been hard for analysts to forecast its quarterly earnings with precision. Even now, results could surprise. But new data emerged last week that hint at how AIG performed.
　　自从一年前美国政府将AIG从破产边缘拯救回来之后，分析师就很难准确预测出它的季度盈利情况了。即便现在其业绩也可能会让人意想不到。不过，上周新出炉的数据让人得以一窥AIG的业绩状况。

　　In the third quarter, a portfolio of mortgage-linked securities previously insured by AIG rose 14% in value, according to Federal Reserve data on an entity called Maiden Lane III, which bought the securities last year using money from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and AIG.
　　美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)就Maiden Lane III资产情况发布的数据显示，第三财季，此前由AIG承保的抵押贷款相关证券组合升值了14%。Maiden Lane III是一家控股公司，用来自纽约联邦储备银行和AIG的资金收购了上述问题证券。

　　That same mortgage-market recovery could have helped AIG's financial-products unit log a $2.5 billion write-up for the period, mainly from credit-default swaps that are still on its books, Credit Suisse analysts said this week. In addition, the trend likely brought some cash back to AIG, as banks are expected to have returned billions in collateral on the swaps to the insurer.
　　瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)分析师本周说，抵押市场的复苏帮助AIG金融产品部门的帐面价值提高了25亿美元，这主要得益于尚存于公司帐面上的信用违约掉期资产。此外，这一趋势有望带动部分现金回流AIG，因为预计多家银行将向这家保险巨头交付数十亿美元的掉期品抵押资金。

　　Beyond AIG's net income, which analysts expect to exceed this year's second-quarter profit of $1.8 billion, investors will be looking for signs of stabilization at the company's main operating insurance units, such as how much new business they are writing. A customer survey cited in an October report from UBS Investment Research said AIG's market-share losses in its main property-and-casualty insurance unit are moderating.
　　分析师预计AIG第三财季的净利润将超过上一财季的18亿美元，此外投资者还在寻找公司主营保险业务的持稳迹象，例如公司新承保的企业客户有多少。刊于瑞银投资调查(UBS Investment Research) 10月份报告的一个客户调查显示，公司主要财ㄓ N外险部门市场份额的萎缩步伐正在放缓。

　　Also closely watched will be the progress of AIG's financial-products unit in unwinding its huge book of outstanding derivatives.
　　同样受到人们高度关注的还有AIG金融产品部门为帐面上巨额衍生品进行平仓的进程。

　　'This is still an unhealthy company, but AIG has made progress in some asset sales and its flexibility has vastly improved from six months ago,' says Rob Haines, an analyst with debt-research firm CreditSights.
　　债务调查公司CreditSights的分析师罗伯•海因斯(Rob Haines)说，AIG仍是个健康状况不佳的公司，但它已经在部分资产销售方面取得了进展，而且它的适应性已经比六个月前大有改观。

　　Now AIG needs to capitalize on the changing tides by improving -- or selling -- assets, while markets and momentum are on its side.
　　现在市场和动向均有利于AIG，公司需要通过改善或出售资产来好好利用这些变化中的潮流。
　　
　　Serena Ng