Lex专栏：警惕“牛鞭效应”

　　The grin on the face of world leaders grew a little wider this week as strong manufacturing data added weight to the global recovery.
　　随着强劲的制造业数据为全球经济复苏增加了砝码，世界各国领导人脸上的笑容本周变得更加灿烂了。

　　The US, UK, eurozone and China all notched up significant gains in influential factory purchasing managers' indices. For Britain, hopes that manufacturers will ride the low pound towards an export-led recovery lent particular reassurance. This strength, though, raises the risk that if companies fail to find end buyers for their rebuilt inventories, they will cut back fast, triggering a double-dip recession in the first quarter of 2010.
　　在美国、英国、欧元区以及中国，重要的工厂采购经理人指数均出现显著增长。在英国，制造商利用英镑汇率低企之机实现出口导向型经济复苏的希望，更是增加了人们的信心。不过，这种强劲趋势也带来了一种风险：如果企业不能为重新扩充的库存找到最后的买家，就会迅速削减产量，从而在2010年第一季度触发一轮双底衰退。

　　This bullwhip effect may soon be visible in industries ranging from nappies through to wine and beer. Say a recovering jeweller forecasts demand for 10 watches and orders accordingly. The wholesaler then sees this growth in demand and, scared of stockouts, orders 15 watches from the watchmaker. The watchmaker, in turn, interprets this growth as a trend and buys enough materials to make 20. Eventually, everyone is oversupplied, the reverse situation plays out and orders evaporate, taking jobs with it. All the while, consumer demand may have grown only slightly.
　　这种“牛鞭效应”(bullwhip effect，经济学术语，指供应链上的需求变异放大现象——译者注)很快就会在从尿布到酿酒等一系列行业显现出来。假设一家逐渐复苏的珠宝商预计手表需求为10只，并据此下了订单；批发商觉察到需求的增长，因担心库存不足，从制表商那里订购了15只手表；再接下来，制表商将这种增长解读为长期趋势，从而购入足够制作20只手表的材料。最终，每个环节都会供应过剩。与预期相反的情况开始上演，订单消失，工作岗位随之减少。而自始至终，消费者需求可能仅仅略有增长而已。

　　Shocks could ripple up and down global supply chains at speed. US data show the backlog of manufacturing orders – one catalyst of the phenomenon – has picked up rapidly since record lows last December.
　　波动可能会沿着全球供应链迅速传播开来。美国的数据显示，制造商积压的订单已较去年12月的创纪录低点迅速增加。而订单积压是“牛鞭”现象的一个催化剂。

　　And in the UK, growth in new orders hit their highest in almost six years while output increased to its greatest in almost two years. There is a similar picture across Asia. Of course, this growth was launched from a very low base, but that is precisely what gives a bullwhip its loudest crack.
　　在英国，新订单创下近6年来的最高增幅，而产出也达到近两年来最高水平。亚洲各地的情形也非常类似。当然，这种增长的基数很低，但正因为此，牛鞭效应才会产生最大效果。

　　Conservatives, though, point out that suppliers' restricted working capital is a natural barrier to over-estimating demand. And modern supply chain systems, such as Walmart's, allow for instant demand analysis to be transmitted directly from cash registers to suppliers. But such expensive automation remains the preserve of large companies. Most lack such instantaneous insight into the real state of consumer demand. They could soon be feeling the sting of the lash.
　　然而，保守派人士指出，供应商运作资金有限，是高估需求的天然障碍。而且现代供应链体系（例如沃尔玛(Walmart)的供应链）能在收银员和供应商之间，直接迅速地传递对需求的分析。但只有大公司才用得起这种成本高昂的自动化程序。大多数企业无法即时了解消费者的真实需求。它们可能很快就会感到受鞭打的疼痛。
　　
　　译者/管婧