Lex专栏：宝马即将转运？
The auto trade is becoming a tale of two industries: carmakers that benefit from cash-for-clunkers schemes, and those that don't. Contrast BMW, whose BMW-brand deliveries fell 9 per cent in the third quarter, with the continuing buoyant total car sales figures in Germany and France. The problem for BMW and luxury rivals is these scrappage schemes are mainly encouraging consumers to buy small, cheap cars. So French car sales jumped 20 per cent year-on-year in October – the sixth month of that kind of increase – as consumers took advantage of France's scheme before its December expiry. But the big gainers were Peugeot, Renault and Ford, which on Monday announced a surprise quarterly profit. In Germany, October new car registrations were up 24 per cent, though its scrappage scheme ran out in September, as cars ordered under the scheme are still being delivered.
汽车业正在上演双城记：一边是从“旧车换现金”计划中受益的汽车制造商，另一边则是那些未能受益的制造商。宝马(BMW)第三季度同名品牌销量下降9%，与德国、法国持续上扬的汽车销售总量形成鲜明对比。宝马及其他高端品牌面临的问题是，这些“旧车换现金”计划主要鼓励消费者购买小排量的低价汽车。因此法国10月份汽车销量同比跃升20%，连续第6个月出现这种幅度的增长，因为消费者希望在12月计划终止之前加以充分利用。而最大的赢家是标致(Peugeot)、雷诺(Renault)和福特(Ford)，3家公司周一均发布了令人惊讶的季度利润。在德国，尽管旧车换现金计划已于9月份结束，但10月份新车登记量仍然增长了24%，因为符合计划的新车订单仍在发货中。
BMW provides a salutary reminder of what the rest of the industry would look like if no one had had the idea of paying consumers to junk their old cars and of the “cold turkey” to come once the incentives party ends. Ford, notably, warned of the “high likelihood of a substantial decrease” in European volumes in 2010. Ironically, BMW and its peers may enjoy a more solid recovery, once it comes, as luxury demand has not been pulled forward in the same way that it has for smaller vehicles.
宝马的例子给了我们一个有益的提醒，让我们认识到，如果没有人想出付钱让消费车淘汰旧车的办法，汽车业会变成怎样一幅场景；也让我们明白，一旦刺激政策的盛宴结束，我们将体验的“突然戒除法”又会是多么痛苦。值得注意的是，福特曾经警告，2010年欧洲汽车销量“非常有可能显著下滑”。讽刺的是，一旦那种情况发生，宝马及其同级别制造商或许能够迎来更加稳健的复苏，因为豪华汽车的需求没有像小排量汽车那样被预先透支。
Other headwinds, however, could partially counteract that effect. BMW says the euro may strengthen further against the dollar and sterling, causing problems in two key markets, with offsetting price increases difficult to push through – though the launch of several new models will help. That makes the recent run-up in its shares to almost €36, or 22 times 2010 earnings, premature. After yesterday's 6 per cent fall to €31.50, the price more fairly reflects the outlook.
不过，其它障碍可能会部分抵消这种效应。宝马表示，欧元兑美元及英镑可能会进一步走强，导致英美这两个关键市场出现问题，而很难通过涨价来作为补偿——尽管多款新车型的推出会有所帮助。这样看来，最近宝马股价急剧上涨至近36欧元——相对于2010年收益的市盈率达到22倍——就有些操之过急。昨天下跌6%至31.5欧元的股价水平，更能准确地反映宝马的前景。
译者/管婧
