分析：贵金属成投资宠儿

　　Gold's strong run has inspired greater investor interest in other precious metals, with silver, platinum and palladium enjoying strong gains this year.
　　金价走高已激发投资者对其它贵金属提高兴趣。今年以来，银、铂和钯的价格均大幅上涨。

　　Gold has risen 24.7 per cent this year but the rest of the precious metals sector has performed even better: silver is up 55.7 per cent; platinum has risen 48.5 per cent, and palladium is up 79.7 per cent.
　　金价今年已上涨24.7%，但贵金属板块其它成员的表现更为出色：银价上涨55.7%；铂价上涨48.5%；而钯价上涨79.7%。

　　“The implosion in financial markets last year and subsequent deleveraging has led to loss of confidence in paper assets and a shift into tangible assets,” says Gijsbert Groenewegen at Silver Arrow Capital, the precious metal hedge fund.
　　“去年金融市场崩盘以及随后的去杠杆化，已导致人们对纸面资产失去信心，而转向有形资产，”贵金属对冲基金“银箭资本”(Silver Arrow Capital)的海斯伯特•格林尼维根(Gijsbert Groenewegen)表示。

　　Like cyclists in a team pursuit race, silver, platinum and palladium have served as pacemakers for each other. Silver set the tempo until February, to be overtaken by platinum in April before regaining the top spot in June. Platinum roared to the front in early July and maintained its lead ever since.
　　就像团体追逐赛中的自行车手，银价、铂价和钯价成为彼此的领跑者。银价率先设定节奏，直至2月，铂价在4月超越。6月份，银价再度领先。铂价在7月初猛冲至最前位置，自那以来一直保持领先位置。

　　Industry insiders expect continued price strength on the back of strong investor appetite for precious metals, according to delegates polled at the London Bullion Market Association meeting, the largest gathering of the industry, this week in Edinburgh.
　　本周在爱丁堡举行的伦敦金银市场协会(London Bullion Market Association, LBMA)年会，是业内规模最大的盛会。对与会代表进行的调查表明，业内人士预期，在投资者对贵金属强烈投资意愿的支撑下，贵金属价格将继续保持强势。

　　LBMA delegates – a mix of analysts, traders and mining executives who, as a group, have a good track record as forecasters – said silver prices would reach $18.10 a troy ounce by next September, up 2.9 per cent from current levels. The delegates also predicted that platinum would hit $1,629.10, up 18.6 per cent, and palladium would reach $475.80 an ounce, a 43.5 per cent rise.
　　伦敦金银市场协会年会的与会代表包括分析师、交易员和矿业高管。作为一个整体，他们作为预测者的记录良好。他们表示，到明年9月，银价将达到每盎司18.10美元，比目前水平高出2.9%。与会代表还预计，铂价将涨至1629.10美元，涨幅为18.6%，钯价将涨至每盎司475.80美元，涨幅为43.5%。

　　The strength of the gold market – yesterday bullion hit a fresh record high of $1,095.4 an ounce – is also likely to attract further interest from retail investors, particularly for silver, which some consider gold's “poorer sister”.
　　昨日，金价升至每盎司1095.4美元的历史新高。黄金市场的这种强势，也可能吸引散户投资者对贵金属的进一步兴趣，尤其是白银——有些人把白银视为黄金的“穷表弟”。

　　Underpinning price gains for all of these metals have been huge inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as investors sought sanctuary from the credit crisis in physical assets. ETF assets now rival some official reserves.
　　随着急于逃避信贷危机的投资者在实物资产中寻找避风港，资金大量流入以贵金属为基础资产的交易所交易基金(ETF)，为所有这些金属的涨幅提供了支撑。如今，ETF名下的资产规模足以媲美某些官方储备。

　　Aram Shishmanian, chief executive of the industry backed World Gold Council says: “Exchange-traded funds have become ‘the people's central bank'.”
　　以贵金属行业为依托的世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)首席执行官施安霂(Aram Shishmanian)表示：“交易所交易基金已成为‘人民的央行'。”

　　This year, total ETF holdings for precious metals have risen to record levels; gold has increased 46 per cent; silver holdings have risen 34 per cent; platinum has more than doubled (up 106 per cent); and palladium holdings have jumped 65 per cent.
　　今年，ETF持有的贵金属总量已升至创纪录水平：黄金增加了46%，银持有量增加了34%，铂持有量增加了一倍多（增幅达106%），而钯持有量飙升了65%。

　　Although both gold and silver ETFs saw outflows during the second and third quarters when confidence improved and stock markets rallied strongly, Daniel Major, commodity analyst at the Royal Bank of Scotland in London, says the limited nature of that selling pressure underlined precious metals' attraction as a haven and a hedge against a potential inflation spike and dollar weakness.
　　虽然由于市场信心好转、股市强劲反弹，黄金和白银的ETF在第二和第三季度均出现资金外流，但苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank of Scotland)驻伦敦大宗商品分析师丹尼尔•梅杰(Daniel Major)表示，抛售压力有限的特性，突显了贵金属作为避风港、作为针对通胀率飙升可能和美元弱势风险的对冲手段的吸引力。

　　At the LBMA conference, about two-thirds of delegates said they expected the US dollar to be weaker and inflation to be higher in 12 months.
　　在伦敦金银市场协会的年会上，大约三分之二的与会代表称，他们预期12个月后，美元汇率将更低，而通胀率将更高。

　　Mr Major said risk appetite was looking increasingly fragile and fund managers who reached their benchmark return might well be inclined to “park” some capital in precious metal ETFs.
　　梅杰表示，风险偏好看上去日趋脆弱，已经实现基准回报率的基金经理，很可能倾向于把一部分资金“存放于”贵金属ETF中。

　　“This has the potential to provide additional ETF inflows, supporting prices but be aware of the potentially negative impact of liquidation of speculative holdings, which currently stand near record highs in the futures market,” said Mr Major.
　　“这有可能为ETF带来更多的资金流入，从而支撑价格，但应当小心投机性资金退出的潜在负面影响，目前期货市场中的投机性资金接近历史高位，”梅杰表示。

　　Hedge fund interest in platinum and palladium has also been boosted by government support for the car industry via scrappage schemes as the sector accounts for about half of annual consumption of both metals.
　　政府通过“旧车换现金”计划扶持汽车工业，也提振了对冲基金对铂和钯的兴趣。在这两种金属的年度消费量中，汽车业占了大约一半。
　　
　　译者/和风