柏林墙倒塌廿年后

　　Germany's reunification was one of the world's most daring multi-billion economic experiments. Yet 20 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the question remains: did it work?
　　德国统一是世界上最大胆、耗资巨大的经济实验之一。然而，在柏林墙倒塌二十年之后，问题依然存在：这项实验成功了吗？

　　Although the peaceful revolution of 1989 saw much of eastern Europe embrace the market, the formidable task of grafting one of the Soviet bloc's most regimented economies on to one of the west's biggest, most successful open markets had no equivalent.
　　1989年和平革命后，虽然东欧许多地区拥抱了市场，但是，把苏联集团管制最严的经济体之一嫁接到西方最大、最成功的开放市场之一，是一项无与伦比的艰巨任务。

　　This was a gigantic endeavour. Cost estimates for reunification range from €1,200bn ($1,780bn, £1,085bn) to €1,600bn, including direct subsidies to businesses, the rebuilding of the country's infrastructure and creation of a new political apparatus, plus welfare benefits for a large portion of 16.7m people living in the east in 1989.
　　这是一项宏大的努力。据估算，用在统一上的花费介于1.2万亿欧元（合1.78万亿美元）至1.6万亿欧元之间。这包括对企业的直接补贴，重建该国基础设施和建立一个新政治机构，以及向大量东德居民发放福利津贴。1989年，东德有1670万居民。

　　As the world's governments last year launched large state-financed stimuli to fight the global recession, many experts looked to Germany for insights into the effects of huge state intervention on advanced economies.
　　去年世界各国政府推出了庞大的财政刺激方案，以对抗全球衰退，在此之际，许多专家把眼光转向德国，探寻大规模政府干预对发达经济体的影响。

　　But the interest has also been much broader. Among the most assiduous students of reunification are South Korea's rulers, eager to learn lessons to use if the country ever embraces the Communist North.
　　但人们的兴趣远不止于此。在“统一课业”上最用心的学生是韩国官员，他们急于学习经验教训，以备该国万一需要接管共产党统治的朝鲜。

　　When my Korean friends ask me about economic reunification, I tell them to study Germany and make sure they don't do it the way we did it, says Udo Ludwig of the IWH economic institute in Halle, eastern Germany.
　　“当韩国朋友问我有关经济统一的事情时，我告诉他们，要研究德国的案例，确保他们不要像我们当初那样行事。”位于德国东部Halle的哈雷经济研究所(IWH economic institute)研究员乌多•路德维希(Udo Ludwig)表示。

　　At first glance, the vital statistics of the former German Democratic Republic seem to contradict Prof Ludwig's downbeat assessment. While gross domestic product per head in the former east accounted for 43 per cent of the west's level in 1991, this figure is now 71 per cent. In the same period, disposable income per inhabitant rose from 60 to 80 per cent of the west's level despite a rapid increase in unemployment.
　　乍看之下，原德意志民主共和国的关键统计数字似乎与路德维希教授的悲观说法矛盾。1991年，原东德的人均国内生产总值(GDP)为西德的43%，如今这一比例是71%。同期内，东德的人均可支配收入与西德之比从60%升至80%，尽管失业迅速增加。

　　Although living standards remain much higher in the west, quality of life in the six eastern Länder , or states, has improved dramatically, adding six years to average life expectancy. Public infrastructure, from broadband cable to pristine highways, is often better in the east and the former "death strip" along the inner German border is now a nature reserve brimming with rare wildlife.
　　虽然西德的生活标准仍高出许多，但东德六州的生活质量也已显著提高，平均寿命提高了6年。从宽带光缆到崭新的公路，东德的公共基础设施往往更好。昔日沿着两德边境的“死亡地带”如今是一个自然保护区，栖息着大量珍稀野生动植物。

　　East German companies, on average, have grown more rapidly than their western peers since 2002 and proved more profitable, partly helped by unit labour costs almost 20 per cent below those in the west. And last year's downturn was softer in the east.
　　平均而言，自2002年以来，东德企业的发展速度快于西德，效益也更好，部分原因是，东德的单位劳动成本比西德低了近20%。而且，在去年的经济衰退中，东德遭受的打击较轻。

　　But despite these achievements, economic reunification is far from an unmitigated success. Indeed, as united Germany enters its third decade, experts are concerned that the gap between east and west could soon widen again.
　　然而，尽管取得了这些成就，德国的经济统一事业却远远称不上绝对成功。事实上，随着统一的德国跨入第三个十年，专家们担心，东、西差距可能会很快再次拉大。

　　In a way, it already has. Since 2005, the differential between per capita GDP in east and west has been rising in absolute terms as eastern growth rates have fallen into line with those in the west. Even in relative terms, the east's catching-up process has nearly come to a standstill since the mid-1990s.
　　从某种程度上来说，差距已在扩大。自2005年以来，由于东德经济增长率回落到与西德一致的水平，按绝对值计算，东、西德在人均GDP上的差距持续增大。即使按相对值计算，从上世纪90年代中期以来，东德的追赶进程就一直近乎陷于停滞。

　　Most economists agree that three hefty mistakes were made from the outset. Firstly, the currency union of July 1990 that marked the first building block of reunification set an unrealistic exchange rate of one Deutschemark to two East German marks (individuals could even convert some of their savings at a one-to-one rate). By comparison, black market rates in 1989 were up to one-to-10.
　　多数经济学家认为，从一开始，德国就犯下了三个重大错误。首先，作为两德统一的第一块基石，1990年7月的货币联盟确定了不切实际的汇率水平：一德国马克兑两东德马克（个人可以按一比一的汇率兑换部分存款）。相比之下，在1989年，黑市汇率高达一比10。

　　While this initially boosted consumption, it made the region's industry terminally uncompetitive overnight. Then, efforts by western trade unions to raise eastern wages to western levels pushed millions into unemployment. Finally, the privatisations organised by the Treuhand, a government-appointed trust, failed to tap local capital, appealing instead to west German investors who often ended up stripping or liquidating the assets.
　　虽然这在开始时刺激了消费，但也使得东德的工业一夜之间失去竞争力。其次，西德的工会力图把东德地区的工资提高到与西德一样的水准，结果导致数百万人失业。最后，由政府指定的信托机构Treuhand一手运作的私有化，未能利用本地资金，而是吸引了西德的投资者，而他们最终往往将资产作剥离或清算处理。

　　While subsidies for business encouraged large western companies to set up in the east, regional officials say much of the reconstruction aid missed its target, either fuelling a property and construction bubble in the early 1990s, or financing white elephant projects.
　　虽然企业补贴鼓励了西德大公司前来东德开拓业务，但地方官员表示，大部分重建援助款都没有达到目标，要么助长了上世纪90年代初的房地产及建筑泡沫，要么就资助了华而不实的形象工程。

　　Politicians still presume to know what business needs without actually asking business. The result is misallocation, says Wolfgang Hummel, deputy director of the Berlin state government's economic development agency. "We have a lot of roads, water-purifying plants, canals, schools, swimming pools, business parks, residential estates and power plants we don't really need."
　　“政界人士依然在没有实际询问企业的情况下，就自作主张，决定企业需要些什么，结果就是配置不当。”柏林州政府经济开发署副署长沃尔夫冈•胡梅尔(Wolfgang Hummel)表示。“我们有大量我们并不真正需要的道路、净水厂、运河、学校、游泳池、商业园、居住区和发电厂。”

　　Speaking last week, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was raised in the east, conceded that the goal of full economic convergence set 20 years ago seemed out of reach. "There is a feeling that unemployment rates twice the level in the west are cast in stone," she said.
　　在东德长大的德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)上周发表讲话时，坦承20年前制定的全面经济融合目标似乎无法实现。“人们有一种感觉，失业率为西德两倍是无法改变的事实，”她表示。

　　Even the east's superficially good statistics often hide grave weaknesses. Relatively high disposable income, for instance, is flattered by large welfare benefit payments. Likewise, the softer impact of the recent downturn is explained by the fact that east German companies play little role in world markets.
　　就连东德表面良好的统计数字也常常掩盖着严重的缺陷。譬如，相对较高的可支配收入，是受到了高额福利津贴的夸大。同样，在近期衰退中受到的影响较小，可以从东德企业在国际市场上无足轻重这一事实来解释。

　　There are big questions about how self-sustainable the east German economy is, says Joachim Ragnitz, director of the Ifo Institute's Dresden branch. "It is not just that many companies rely on subsidies, but they also rely on domestic demand that is artificially inflated by handouts," he says. "One concern is that the underlying engines of economic convergence may be disappearing."
　　“东德经济的自立程度有多高，是一个很大的问号，”Ifo研究所德累斯顿分所主任约阿希姆•拉格尼茨(Joachim Ragnitz)表示。“许多公司不光依赖于补贴，也依赖于内需，而内需受到福利津贴的人为夸大。”他表示：“令人担心的一个地方是，经济融合的根本引擎或许正在消失。”

　　The gradual withdrawing of state support, experts fear, could lay bare hitherto concealed flaws in the east German economy. The second federal assistance programme for the east, launched in 2004 and worth €156.5bn, will run out in 2019, forcing regional governments into severe fiscal belt-tightening. Meanwhile, a rapidly shrinking population - the east has lost nearly 2m inhabitants since 1990 - will mean less demand and tax revenue.
　　专家担心，逐步撤消政府支持，可能暴露出东德经济迄今一直隐藏着的缺陷。对东德的第二个联邦援助计划于2004年启动，规模在1565亿欧元，将于2019年到期，届时地方政府将陷入财政严重紧缩的局面。与此同时，人口急剧萎缩意味着，需求和税收都将减少。自1990年以来，东德流失了近200万人口。

　　The more I look at insolvency candidates here, the more I realise many companies have built their business models around subsidies, says a regional government official. "Remove the subsidies and the model collapses."
　　“我越是关注来申请破产的企业，就越是意识到，许多公司的业务模式都是围绕补贴构建起来的，”一位地方政府官员表示。“一旦取消补贴，这一模式就会崩溃。”

　　Government officials and businessmen also complain that Germany's federal system and the legal framework of the Federal Republic will always prevent the east from deploying its comparative advantages, including lower labour costs.
　　政府官员和商界人士还抱怨，德国的联邦制，以及联邦共和国的法律框架，将始终阻碍东德利用自身的比较优势，包括较低的劳动成本。

　　The past 20 years have brought about a realisation that full economic convergence would not happen in the foreseeable future. The real challenge for the new government will be to prevent east and west from growing even further apart.
　　过去20年使人们认识到，在可预见的将来，全面经济融合不会发生。新政府面临的真正挑战，将是防止东、西德差距进一步扩大。
　　
　　译者/岱嵩