大宗商品投资热降温

四川遂 正在建设的液化天然气储存罐

　　The flood of investor cash that has helped drive up the prices of everything from oil to platinum this year is slowing amid worries prices could fall and evidence some of the popular commodity investment products have failed to live up to their promises.
　　今年大量资金涌入大宗商品市场，帮助推高了从石油到白金等诸多大宗商品的价格。但由于担心市场可能回落，同时有证据表明，部分受欢迎的大宗商品投资产品未能兑现承诺，投资大宗商品的资金进场速度正在放缓。

　　Investors plowed a record $50 billion into commodities this year, helping drive prices for crude oil up 79% and gold 23%, but just $2.2 billion of new money flowed into commodities in October.
　　今年以来，投资者投入大宗商品市场的资金达到创纪录的500亿美元，帮助推动原油价格上涨79%，黄金价格上涨23%。但10月份只有22亿美元新资金进入大宗商品市场。

　　That would mark the lowest monthly inflow since July -- when threats of market regulation briefly unnerved investors -- and the second-lowest since November 2008.
　　这一月度流入量为7月份以来最低，也是2008年11月份以来第二低的。今年7月份风传会有监管措施出台，让投资者一度惊慌失措。

　　On a quarterly basis, inflows into commodity investments have fallen from about $22 billion in the first quarter to $17 billion in the second and $11 billion in the third. The inflows already are more than triple those of 2008. On Thursday, gold closed at a record $1088.70 an ounce.
　　按季度流量来看，第一季度流入大宗商品市场投资产品的资金大约为220亿美元，第二季度下滑至170亿美元，第三季度为110亿美元。这些流入量已经是2008年流入总量的3倍以上。周四黄金价格收于创纪录的1088.70美元/盎司。

　　Many commodity investors missed out on the big gains because they invested in index funds designed to track different commodities, and in many cases those funds didn't do as promised. Other funds have had to stop taking new investments because they became too big for their markets.
　　很多大宗商品投资者错过了这些巨大的涨幅，因为他们将资金投在了用于跟踪不同商品的指数型基金，而在很多情况下，这些基金都没有兑现承诺。其他基金早已不再扩容，因为相关市场已经无法容纳。

　　But many investors are now worried the liquidity-fueled rally in commodities may soon be over. They say the weakness in the dollar, which has helped drive commodities higher, may soon come to an end. When it does, commodity prices may swing back drastically. Increased worries about tougher regulations down the pike and disappointing returns from some exchange-traded funds are combining to drive investors to look elsewhere.
　　但现在很多投资者担心，受流动性推动的大宗商品市场反弹势头可能很快灰飞烟灭。他们认为，曾经帮助推动大宗商品走高的美元弱势可能马上就要结束。当美元弱势不再，大宗商品价格或将急转直下。投资者越来越担心更严厉的监管将有如泰山压顶，而一些交易所买卖基金(ETF)的回报率也让人失望，这些因素都迫使投资者往其他市场寻找机会。

　　Bob Jergovic, chief investment officer of CLS Investments, which oversees $3.7 billion in assets, said he has dialed down the allocation to commodities in some funds to 2% from 10% in the past month.
　　投资公司CLS Investments管理着37亿美元的资产，其首席投资长耶尔戈维奇(Bob Jergovic)表示，他已经把大宗商品在一些基金中的比例从上个月的10%下调到了2%。

　　'If the dollar starts to firm up, it might take some heat out of commodities,' he said. 'That's the biggest concern; we want to be on the right side.' He moved into U.S. stocks.
　　他说，如果美元开始走强，大宗商品市场或将失去部分势头，这是最大的心头之患，我们不想站错队伍。他把资金转移到了美国股市中。

　　Barclays speculates some of the slowdown in inflows is also attributable to disappointment on the part of investors, who had anticipated they would be getting higher returns for commodities. Commodities typically are the first to rise coming out of a recession, peaking before stocks. But even though raw commodity prices have soared, many funds linked to those assets -- exchange-traded funds in particular -- have vastly underperformed.
　　巴克莱银行(Barclays)推测，资金流入放缓，在一定程度上也是投资者的失望情绪所致；投资者本来以为会从大宗商品中获取更高的回报。一般来讲，在经济走出衰退的时候，大宗商品价格会最先上涨，比股市更早达到顶点。但是，在原料大宗商品价格已经大幅上涨的情况下，很多跟这些资产挂钩的基金、特别是交易所买卖基金，表现却远远不及。
　　
　　Carolyn Cui