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  For the past century, Brazil has been a land of great potential-but few results. With runaway inflation and stratospheric national debt, the country was too much of a mess for anyone to take it seriously on the world stage.How times have changed.
  在过去的一个世纪中,巴西一直是片土肥苗不壮的土地。由于通货膨胀失控,国家负债居高不下,巴西的局面一团糟,没有人能在国际舞台上重视它。但现在已是今非昔比。

  Consider this: In the face of the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression, Brazil's economic output dipped a tiny 0.2% last year, and is expected to grow as much as 6% this year. Everyday Brazilians have been too busy buying washing machines, cars and flat-screen televisions to even notice the downturn.
  想想看:面对上世纪30年代大萧条以来最严重的全球经济危机,巴西的经济产出去年只微降了0.2%,而该国今年的经济增长率预计最高可达6%。巴西人每天都忙着买洗衣机、汽车和平板电视机,他们甚至没有注意到此次全球性经济低迷。

  Brazil is already the biggest economy in Latin America and the 10th-biggest in the world. By 2050, it will likely move into fourth place, leapfrogging countries including Germany, Japan and the U.K., according to a study by Goldman Sachs.
  巴西已经是拉美最大、世界第十大经济体。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一项研究显示,到2050年时,巴西有可能成为全球第四大经济体,把德国、日本和英国甩在身后。

  Clearly, Brazil has turned a corner-and is now a nation with the heft, ambition and economic fundamentals to become a world power. But the country has enormous challenges it must overcome before it can fully live up to its potential.
  显然,巴西已经否极泰来,以其现在的重要性、雄心和经济基本面,它很有可能成为世界强国。但巴西在充分发挥出自身潜力之前,还必须克服大量挑战。

  Its public sector is bloated and riddled with corruption. Crime is rampant. Its infrastructure is badly in need of repair and expansion. The business environment is restrictive, with a labor code ripped from the pages of Benito Mussolini's economic playbook. Brazil also risks patting itself on the back so much that it fails to see the colossal work that remains to be done.
  它的公共部门人浮于事,腐败严重。国内犯罪猖獗。基础设施急需修缮和扩建。商业环境也在束缚人的手脚,其劳动法受到了【意大利法西斯分子】贝尼托•墨索里尼(Benito Mussolini)经济纲领的荼毒。巴西还有过于自满的危险,有可能会看不到仍有大量工作要做。

  'There's too much good happening at the moment for the country not to take advantage of it,' says Ricardo Amorim, a well-known financial consultant in São Paulo. 'Brazil has never had as much opportunity as it will have in the years ahead.'
  圣保罗著名金融咨询师阿莫瑞姆(Ricardo Amorim)说,目前巴西有太多的好事同时发生,它有可能无法加以充分利用。阿莫瑞姆说,巴西未来几年将拥有它前所未有的众多机会。


学校的孩子们正在上课

  Big Promise
  目标宏伟

  Brazil has always had a lot to live up to, simply because of its size. The country is bigger than the continental U.S. and has almost as many people as Germany, France and the U.K. combined. Yet except when it came to soccer and music, many Brazilians themselves tended to believe the notion-apocryphally attributed to Charles de Gaulle-that 'Brazil is not a serious country.'
  由于巴西的规模,这个国家一直有很大的潜力。巴西的领土面积比美国本土还大,其人口几乎相当于德国、法国和英国的总和。但除了足球和音乐外,许多巴西人自己也相信那句被安到戴高乐(Charles de Gaulle)头上的话:巴西不是个靠谱的国家。

  Things started changing in the 1990s. The government adopted strict monetary policies and a laser-like focus on balancing the books. That fiscal prudence has given the country remarkable cash reserves-and breathing room during crises.
  巴西的局面是在上世纪90年代开始发生变化的。巴西政府当时实施了严格的货币政策,高度重视财政收支平衡。这种审慎的财政政策给了巴西可观的财政储备,并使巴西在此后遭遇的历次经济危机中有了喘息余地。

  For instance, when the big downturn hit in 2008, private lending began to dry up. So the government, flush with cash reserves and the keys to an aggressive development bank, ordered state-run lenders to open the credit taps. The banks complied, lending out record amounts last year to Brazilians eager to join the country's quickly growing consumer class. Internal demand soared, softening the blow of the slowdown.
  比如说,当2008年出现严重经济低迷时,私人放贷开始停滞。这时手握大量现金储备并拥有一家开发银行的巴西政府于是下令,国营银行要敞开口子放贷。这些银行去年发放给巴西人的贷款创下历史最高纪录,许多巴西人都可望跻身这个国家规模迅速壮大的消费阶层。巴西的国内需求大幅飙升,弱化了经济增长放缓造成的冲击。

  'This is a different Brazil than 10 years ago,' President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva boasted recently. Back then, he said, 'the crisis in Greece would have already bankrupted Brazil.'
  巴西总统卢拉(Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva)最近夸口说,这是一个不同于10年前的巴西。他说,巴西要是还像当年那样,就已经被希腊目前的危机搞破产了。

  What's more, there's now a political consensus to avoid the mistakes of the past. Until recently, elections in Brazil were considered make-or-break contests between irresponsible, populist proposals and the voices of investment, stability and growth. Now neither leading candidate from the right or left in October's election is expected to stray far from current economic policies, a functional blend of pro-business market rules and social-welfare programs.
  此外,巴西国内已经形成了要避免再犯以往那些错误的政治共识。直到不久前,选举在巴西还被认为是不负责任的民粹主义主张和投资、稳定和增长之声之间的生死对决。而眼下,无论是右翼还是左翼的主要总统候选人预计都不会过远偏离当前的经济政策,这些政策融合了亲商界的市场规则以及社会福利项目。

  Even a pledge for a bigger state role in the economy by Dilma Rousseff, Mr. da Silva's outgoing chief of staff and his hand-chosen successor as the party's candidate, isn't scaring off the business community. 'It's refreshing to have an election and see there's no fuss about either outcome,' says Andrew Béla Jánszky, a Brazilian investment lawyer in the São Paulo office of Shearman & Sterling LLP. 'For once, stability is almost a given.'
  即使是卢拉亲手挑选的继任人罗塞芙(Dilma Rousseff),其有关要让政府在经济生活中扮演更重要角色的承诺,也没有让商界感到害怕。罗塞芙目前担任卢拉的幕僚长,她将代表执政党参加今年10月举行的总统选举。美国律师事务所Shearman & Sterling LLP驻圣保罗办事处的巴西投资律师简斯基(Andrew Bela Janszky)说,看到无论谁当选总统都不会令人惊慌失措,这是件让人欣喜的事。他说,这次,稳定几乎是必然之事。

  The hard work has also enabled Brazil-already a leading exporter of iron ore, steel, coffee, soybeans, sugar and beef-to soar in sectors it once only dreamed about. After decades of research and investment, Brazil in 2007 discovered mammoth new oil beds beneath the Atlantic that are expected to double output in the coming years-generating billions of dollars in new revenue annually.
  虽然巴西已经是铁矿石、钢铁、大豆、糖和牛肉的主要出口国,但通过艰苦努力,巴西在其他一些产业也取得了以往只能梦想的高速发展。经过数十年的研究和投资,巴西2007年在大西洋底发现了规模巨大的新油田,这些油田未来几年预计会使巴西的石油产量增加一倍,每年给这个国家新增数十亿美元收入。


圣保罗的电器卖场

  Cleaning House
  清理门户

  The results of all these changes have been dramatic. The economic turnaround has pulled millions out of poverty and is creating a thriving middle class. For instance, Brazil's northeast, long the source of internal migration to more-prosperous cities down south, now outpaces the rest of the country in growth. Companies there are scrambling to train workers, many experienced only as field hands, to build cars, appliances and computer parts.
  这些变化产生了戏剧性结果。经济形势好转使数百万巴西人摆脱了贫困,并且正在形成一个欣欣向荣的中产阶级。举例来说,巴西长期以来都是东北地区的人向南部那些更加繁荣的城市移民,而这一地区现在的经济增长率已经超过国内其他地方。那里的企业正忙着将许多只干过农活的人培训成生产汽车、家电和电脑零部件的工人。

  The country's promise is such that events that once rattled the faith of local and foreign investors are now taken largely in stride-be it the global financial meltdown or Mr. da Silva's bear hugs and backslaps with leaders of regimes in Havana, Tehran and Caracas.
  巴西的前景是如此美好,以致于那些曾经会打击国内外投资者信心的事件,无论是全球金融危机,还是巴西总统卢拉与古巴、伊朗和委内瑞拉领导人的热情拥抱,现在大体上都能被投资者坦然面对了。

  But before Brazil can achieve its first-world ambitions, it must tackle big economic, legal and social deficiencies that have hobbled its development.
  不过在巴西实现其跻身第一世界的雄心之前,它必须解决本国在经济、法律和社会方面存在的巨大不足,这些缺陷已经在阻碍着巴西的发展。

  For one thing, even after sweeping reforms, the government's role in the economy remains relatively big. Government spending totals more than 20% of the country's gross domestic product, compared with about 15% in the U.S., 13% in China and 7% in Indonesia, another fast-growing emerging market, according to data compiled by Mosaico Economia Política, a Brazilian consultancy. The government trimmed as many as 150,000 jobs in the 1990s, but since then has taken on twice that number, according to research at Banco Santander, the Spanish bank that is one of Brazil's biggest foreign investors. Even with greater leeway to spend than ever before, government debt has begun to creep back up.
  首先,尽管巴西进行了大规模改革,但政府在经济中的角色依然相对很大。巴西咨询机构Mosaico Economia Politica提供的数据显示,巴西的政府开支超过国内生产总值的20%,而美国、中国和印尼的这一比例分别为15%、13%和7%,印尼也是一个发展迅速的新兴市场国家。西班牙国家银行(Banco Santander)提供的数据显示,虽然巴西政府上世纪90年代削减了多达15万个政府职位,但自那以来新增的政府职位却是这一数字的两倍。这家银行是巴西最大的外国投资者之一。尽管巴西政府的支出余地比以往任何时候都大,但政府债务已开始回升。

  To help finance the growth in the size of government-and onerous pension and benefit plans-'the trend is likely to be in the direction of higher taxes, lower investments, and, thus, lower long-term growth,' Santander said in the report. The spending growth comes as consumer demand is also surging, spurred on by state lending. That has caused inflation to rear its head once more-forcing the central bank to consider raising interest rates again.
  西班牙国家银行在研究报告中说,为了给政府扩容及沉重的养老及福利计划提供资金,其趋势可能是提高税率、减少投资,这可能造成长期增长放缓。在国家放贷的刺激下,随消费需求而来的支出增长呈激增之势,这已造成通胀再度抬头,迫使央行考虑再次上调利率。

  'The government can't have it all,' warns Eduardo Giannetti da Fonseca, an economist and professor at Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa, a business school in São Paulo. 'You can't increase spending, private consumption and invest all at the same time, because something will eventually give.'
  巴西圣保罗商学院Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa经济学家、教授方赛卡(Eduardo Giannetti da Fonseca)说,政府不可能面面俱到,支出、私人消费和投资的同时增长是不可能实现的,最终总要有所让步。

  Another problem is the restrictive business environment, especially strict labor laws that date back to the 1940s and were originally modeled on the statist policies of Mussolini. Because it costs so much to start companies and hire workers, many entrepreneurs and businesses stay in the black market and pay workers informally. That creates a massive underground economy that, according to a 2005 study by McKinsey & Co., accounts for up to 40% of Brazil's gross domestic product, takes about half of all urban jobs and drags overall economic growth by as much as 1.5% annually.
  另一个问题是条条框框颇多的商业环境,特别是严格的劳工法,这一法律可以追溯至上世纪40年代,并最初成型于墨索里尼的中央经济统治论观点。因为开设公司、雇佣员工成本很高,许多业主和公司选择在黑市运作,给工人发薪也是暗中进行。这就催生了巴西规模庞大的地下经济。麦肯锡公司(McKinsey & Co.) 2005年时一项研究显示,地下经济占巴西国内生产总值的40%,解决了近一半城市居民就业问题,在全国经济增速中有1.5个百分点是地下经济所贡献的。

  The problem is palpable across Brazil, where underground commerce is on open display from city sidewalks to public buses to the festive beaches of Rio de Janeiro. 'I'd rather have a real job, but it's a lot easier to get hired to do something like this,' says Milton, a 28-year-old vendor of pirate software and DVDs in central São Paulo, who declined to give his last name. 'There's plenty of this kind of work to go around.'
  这个问题在巴西各地都很明显,从城市人行道到公共汽车上、再到里约热内卢欢闹的海滩,地下商业随处可见。米尔顿(Milton)是一个在圣保罗市中心兜售盗版软件和DVD的商贩,他说,我也想有真正的工作,但找我现在这样的差事要容易得多。这位不肯透露自己姓氏的28岁小贩说,像我这样的工作到处都是。

  Bad Connections
  联络不畅

  Yet another obstacle to growth is a lack of infrastructure-from roads, railways and bridges to docks, airports and pipelines. Like most everything else in the country, infrastructure investment fluctuated with the booms and busts of the past. Projects were launched when times were flush, only to sit neglected for decades.
  另外一个制约增长的因素是基础设施的匮乏,从公路、铁路、桥梁、码头、再到机场和输油管线可谓无一不缺。就像这个国家几乎所有事情一样,基础设施投资也随着往日兴衰而几多起伏。项目开工时本来光景很好,但最后几十年过去了还都荒废在那里。

  Not only is much of it old and in disrepair, but Brazil's existing infrastructure is too small to handle the volume of people and goods currently using it-let alone accommodate new growth. The government this week is expected to announce the second phase of an ambitious 'growth acceleration program' that it launched in 2007. The original plan foresaw infrastructure investments of some $342 billion, but many projects remain mired in bureaucracy. Contas Abertas, a not-for-profit research group that studies public spending, in a study this month said that only 11% of the projects outlined in the plan have been completed, while just over half have yet to be launched.
  除了陈旧、失修之外,巴西基础设施领域还有其他问题,那就是它们小得无法满足当前的人员及物资使用需求,适应未来增长就更无从谈起了。预计本周巴西政府将宣布其规模宏大的“增长加速方案”的第二阶段内容。这一最初于2007年推出的方案曾预计基础设施投资约为3,420亿美元,但至今许多项目仍被官僚主义绊住了脚步。研究公共支出问题的非营利机构Contas Abertas在本月的一份研究中指出,该方案规划的基础设施项目中只有11%已经完成,略多于一半的项目还未启动。

  To casual observers, things will look better as Brazil gears up for hosting soccer's World Cup in 2014 and the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro in 2016. New roads and airport terminals will be christened along with modernized stadiums and scenic, well-policed promenades. But manufacturers, exporters and shippers-who regularly wait days or weeks for backlogs in ports and customs facilities to clear-know Brazil needs more than just cosmetic changes.
  乍一看上去,目前巴西的形势会有所改善,因为该国正在准备迎接2014年巴西世界杯和2016年里约热内卢夏季奥运会的到来。除了修建新的公路和候机楼之外,现代化的体育场馆和风景优美、有良好警力部署的人行道也将展现在人们眼前。然后,那些常常要因为大宗货物清关手续未完成而等上几天甚至几周的制造业企业、出口商和船运商深知,巴西需要改变的不仅仅是外观。

  Progress in other areas falls short, too. Crime is still a big problem in most cities and in lawless rural areas where ruthless prospectors, loggers and landowners at times ride roughshod over their neighbors. Those charged with enforcing the law are so underpaid that police routinely look the other way in exchange for a little extra money or commit serious human-rights abuses in efforts to solve problems that overburdened courts rarely can. Using the government's own statistics, a December report by Human Rights Watch disclosed that police in Rio and São Paulo together killed more than 1,000 people annually in recent years, many of them in execution-style 'extrajudicial' killings.
  其他领域同样是进步有限。犯罪仍将是大多城市和缺乏法制的乡村中存在的主要问题。在巴西农村,一些胆大妄为的矿工、伐木工人以及土地所有人不时行恃强凌弱之事。巴西执法团队工资水平太低,以致于一些警察经常用手中权力换些外快,或者在一些已不堪重负的法庭难以解决的问题上动用严重侵犯人权的手段来“执法”。官方统计数据显示,人权观察(Human Rights Watch) 12月份发布的报告称,近年来,里约热内卢和圣保罗两地的警察每年杀死的人数都超过了1000人,他们当中许多都是被以执行死刑的方式在法外解决掉的。

  Brazil's politicians and legislators often run afoul of the law, as well. The country's Federal Police, its most respected law-enforcement body and the agency charged with fighting corruption, currently has nearly 30,000 active investigations related to public corruption and fraud, according to a recent report. The deposed governor of Brasília, Brazil's capital, at the moment sits in jail awaiting trial over alleged kickbacks from public construction projects.
  巴西的政客以及议员也常常违法。该国最受尊重的执法部门联邦警署(Federal Police)担负着打击腐败的重任,最新一份报告显示,联邦警署目前正在调查的公共腐败和欺诈案多达30000起。首都巴西利亚前市长目前正在监狱里等待审判,此人被控在公共建筑项目中收取了回扣。

  Then there's public education. Brazil has a popular welfare program that helps needy children by paying parents to keep them in school rather than send them out to help put food on the table. But schools themselves remain underfunded and the quality of education remains poor. Outdated university statutes mean that the best colleges, which are public and free, get filled by wealthy students from private high schools, while poorer students, the products of public schools, get stuck paying for second-rate degrees at costly classrooms in strip malls and fly-by-night academies.
  公共教育也成问题。巴西的全民福利计划向有需要的学龄儿童家长发放津贴,让他们确保孩子能去上学而不是帮家里讨生活。但学校自己仍是资金不足,教育质量也很差。过时的大学法规令那些最好的公立免费大学充斥着从私人高中毕业的富家子,而从公立高中毕业的穷人家子弟则要花大钱在不入流的大学里攻读二流学位。

  Mr. da Silva and his ministers, including Ms. Rousseff, admit that much still needs to be done. The work so far, they insist, has been about laying the groundwork for stability and thereby facilitating investment and growth in the future. Now that popular social programs have helped ease suffering for the critically poor-and disastrous fallout from the financial crisis was averted-the government can begin focusing on ways to ensure it builds upon more solid economic foundations.
  卢拉及包括罗塞芙在内的各位部长们承认还有许多工作需要做。他们坚称,到目前为止,所做的工作仍是为稳定打基础,以利日后的投资及增长。既然全民福利计划已减轻了赤贫阶层的苦痛,金融危机的灾难性影响也被克服,那么政府可以把关注的焦点转向去打造更坚固的经济基础之上。

  'If the past year was about measures to stimulate consumption,' Mr. da Silva said in a television address at the end of December, 'now our emphasis is on reinforcing investments and thereby making the wheel of the economy roll in a healthy and sustainable way.'
  卢拉在12月底的一个电视讲话中说道,如果说去年的策略是刺激消费,那么我们现在的重点是增加投资,让经济车轮健康、持久地向前驶去。

  PAULO PRADA

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